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Quick Quiz: Are you competitant to understand genomic tests?

Started by Andrew Yates · 9 months ago

Solve this simple math question.
Statistics and disease risks are arbitrary for this exercise!
1% of people will have Parkinson’s Disease by age 70. Up to 80% of people with Parkinson’s Disease will get positive LRRK2 mutation tests.  9.6% of people without P ... Continue reading »

3 comments

  • neandrothal

    9 months ago

    Just a quick note: these numbers are *not* accurate numbers for Parkinson's disease. They're the same (fake) numbers as in the Yudkowsky example. I hope people don't switch the 80% numbers around in their heads and think that 80% of people with Parkinson's have LRRK2 G2019S, though it is true that some studies report that people with LRRK2 G2019S may have up to an 80% lifetime risk of Parkinson's (i.e. penetrance of the disease given the mutation = up to 80%).
    reply
  • Andrew Yates

    9 months ago

    YES, that is correct. They are not accurate, and I did state that, but you're right, I should make it more obviously nonsensical. Thanks, neandrothal.
    reply
  • Anon in Montreal

    8 months ago

    1% of people will have Hubbub Disease by age 70. But if you test positive for HEBOT, you have a 7.8% chance of having Hubbub Disease. That's an almost 8 fold increase.

    You can take action based on this. You can increase your retirement savings to prepare for higher medical costs. You can take disability insurance. You can be on the lookout for symptoms, etc.

    Plus, you can probably use other clinical tests to further improve the predictive power of the test.
    reply

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